I would use "Nazgul" to describe the ruling class, not "elves." I think you need to be disabused of your feeling of sympathy towards (and belonging to) this blasphemous milieu. These people are stupid, lack any culture beyond post-modernist cliches, and function as fungi corroding the body politic upon which they economically thrive. Yes, yes, I too am rich and went to a great school, but I despise America's white liberals - the emasculated goblins and screeching harpies of our time.
The way you win a religious war is by smashing the enemy's idols, daring the enemy deity to do something about it, and coming out unscathed. The left understands this, it's why the alphabet freak show is so important to them. Curtis also understands it, he wrote a piece about it not too long ago in the context of the freak show.
So far, the right has suffered nothing at all for this. No cities burned, no terror campaign against churches, it doesn't even look like it'll have an impact in November. It's a pure victory for the right and Curtis is chaffed at seeing his "never fight back" advice belied.
Lollll, the subtext here is amazing. "You dummies went and did something so gauche it makes ME look unpopular at parties. ME. How am I supposed to convince my cool girlfriend* of anything when I've got YOU dummies to account for?"
I mean, in the words of another commenter, "yes, I too am rich and went to a great school", silicon valley mathematician, classical liberal arts training, happily married to a researcher with even better street cred, not religious, not Republican, not even against all the abortions, but I still see this as an absolute win. You created me, and a lot of people like me, and I'm sorry, but you do have to answer for us to your cool girlfriend. It's a bummer, I know.
Personally I see this as one of those political revolution vs social revolution things. It's totally reasonable to trade away a political revolution for a social revolutionary win. Otherwise, what's the point? Power accumulated forever and never spent, like so much useless hoard money. No, if something is someone's stated number one bullet point social revolutionary goal** for fifty years, believe it's in their rational interest to trade away everything else to get it done.
And it's not even necessarily a bad move for the political revolution. Let this convince a large number of people on both sides that democracy doesn't work. Let it hasten the end of America the Single Culture.
** The goal is not (and never was) to ban abortions in Oakland. It's to regain the right to ban them where they're unpopular. It's anti-federal, it's a step towards city states, it's equivalent to https://graymirror.substack.com/p/the-parent-coup
Curtis I love you, but this essay is a steaming pile. In my nerd rage I'm going to toss you a 10 spot just to post this (I'm already up to date on all the premium content...).
Trashing Roe v Wade was an insane win for the good, the true, and the beautiful. A win not taken by replacing the entire system with a monarchy, but one taken by regular, straightforward politics. A win that, by your writing on the culture war, should have been impossible (and for what it's worth, I thought it was impossible too, until it happened). I've been waiting to hear how you update your thought or provide a counter narrative or _something_ --- but to downplay such a colossal win followed by rehashing the same old rhetoric? Weak.
First off, let's get this out of the way --- _our elites are not high elves_. They are degenerate, lack conviction, exonerate the lowest, and take pride in sin, ugliness, and relativism. Google drag queen story hour, and marinate on that hissing creature made up like satan if satan's beautician had downs syndrome --- that, my friend, is a dark elf. While it's true these dark elves occupy the honored position of the high elves, they only do so in clown world, in this inversion we are living. Don't be fooled, they are dark and getting darker.
Second off, there is no longer a hard class distinction between Hobbits and Elves. The majority of people reading this, I'd wager, enjoy art films _and_ grilling. Technology has levelled the playing field. Joe Rogan, literal real life hobbit, is destroying the gay bois at cnn and the supercilious fake sneerers at fox. The dark elves have taken over, and they are setting fire to their once great elf valley from within. The elves are learning the hard way that there is Truth in morality. They aren't the first to put themselves above Truth, and they'll fall just as hard as everyone else who as attempted it.
No really what is this metaphor --- our current oligarchy is not full of winners. More and more, strong leaders who care about strong leader things are specifically avoiding the bureaucracy, the political correctness, the mediocrity. And those that don't are filtered out of the system because they refuse to bend the knee to lies and degeneracy. You're telling me there is no one outside of this pack of raving clowns with the will to power? Biden is the high water mark of a human leader? I agree that many elites are being done wrong by the current system, and under better leadership they will be better people. But the best people are getting out of elfhood.
This is not a class battle, it is a theological battle. I've read Tolkien and the hobbits and elves are on on the same side: the side of good.
Third off, grow some cajones. I know you like to distance yourself from moral questions and have the autistic programmer takes, but some things you just can't fence sit on. "Among those who believe that an unborn baby is a human life, of course, the result of preventing an abortion is saving a life." Very diplomatic. Let the Californians set up their abortion theme parks. Let them sell little key chains with the aborted kid's leg hanging off it. Hell, the autistic silicon valley types can monetize baby parts the same way they monetized personal data. Nobody even knows about the value of their unborn child! We'll pay _you_ to abort it!
Let the horrendous evil of society's wanton murder of its most helpless be on full display, because through some spell it has been hidden from the eyes of good people. This will further divide the elves, right? Speaking of which, the repeal of Roe v Wade does just that --- it allows red states to go red, and blue states to go blue. People can sort themselves out. That's the whole point, isn't it, patchwork and all that?
Lastly, tangential, but a peeve of mine:
"Culture is still downstream from power"
If it's downstream of power how can it be leveraged to upset the existing power center? Culture/art is neither downstream, nor upstream of power/politics. They are always interacting with each other in a complex system that loops in on itself. I have no idea why this generalisation is so popular.
_To the extent that political power opts to exercise tyrannical control of culture_, it is upstream of _mainstream_ culture. But there will always be alternative cultures that exist independent of, or react against the mainstream propaganda. And as Curtis points out, these alternative cultures can end up upstream of future politics.
But more than that, power/politics is not everything. Art is deeper than the low resolution abstractions wielded by politics. Human connections are deeper. Politics are necessary and always present in human society, they are _not_ all encompassing. The latter is such misanthropic, myopic, and self evidently wrong take, yet I get it constantly from both the left and the right.
In short, step it up my man. If the "dark elves" can't take a stand on murdering unborn kids, then what good are they? Do we need to sway you with poetry on this one?
Elves are completely incapable of viewing anything outside of a "what I want at this moment" lens. "I want to be able to screw without consequence, and killing babies is a price I'm willing to pay, so law is now whatever is required to make that a 'right'".
This would seem to indicate that there can be no contract at all with elves, because there is no meaning which will survive a change in their desires, and those change frequently. Today they want to change the sex of children, down to 2 and 3 year olds.
Before I thought that this was a feature of a state. Now you say it is a feature of elves, per se.
Once upon a time there was a pseudonymous blogger who quite possibly changed the world (the jury of history is still out and will be deliberating for a while.) Then he got doxxed and, according to some opinions, has never been the same since.
Here is a quote from his earlier years: "...let’s pause for a minute, and admit that there is evil in the world. More specifically, there are evil people. And it is a glorious thing, and good for all and sundry, to wrap a rope around their necks and pull the chair away... the combination of world domination and *profound self-righteousness* is a bath of nutrients as nourishing as evil has ever found. And bacteria are not in short supply" (emphasis mine.)
Why do the all the "Dark Elves" telling me to wait just a little bit longer all seem somewhat Dwarvish? And why do so many of the High Elves seem to be Dwarves as well?
If the answer is "because a significant percentage of all elves are actually dwarves" than I question your whole method and frame of analysis.
"Of dwarves and orcs we shall not speak" Ok, fine. But both are immediate problems to my life and livelihood. The orcs are killing me and the dwarves are robbing me blind. The artistic pretensions of elves are ugly and revolting to me, but they aren't ruining my immediate material existence, and they have not penetrated my family's spiritual bubble. I'm not being misruled, I'm being robbed and beaten and shot at by the unruled. The dwarves and orcs are being misruled. Rule them. Leave ME the fuck alone!
You have this idea that life is just one big burning man for leftists, but that simple folk need to be ruled by their own parochial chiefdoms. It's the other way around. It's the bat-shit crazy lefties who need the monastic discipline and the order of their own church. The common folk can be left alone.
There are two problems the way I see it. One is that Curtis can't empathize with the 'hobbit' portion of his audience that well, though I do believe he tries. The other is that he stopped coming up with genuinely new ideas so now we're getting pieces like this ad infinitum, just with different metaphors. Combined this will result in people getting increasingly pissed off.
The solution to Elvish extremism is not to arm Elvish moderates with power. The solution, which Yarvin might be expected to know, is the return of the King.
Defeatist nonsense: The rural people control the food, the rural people control the highways, the rural people have the guns and the military training. The city people have art, paper money, and web applications.
The real problem with Dobbs is, I don't give two flying fucks if democrats kill their children, inside the womb or outside it: Dobbs is born out of a misguided "love for all humanity" which is the true enemy of the right. In fact, I would give them the power to kill their offspring until they become Republicans.
The fact that Republicans care about Democrat lives, and all the weakness that entails, is the real reason we will lose. We will lose until we view them with as much contempt as they view us. And let them die. Even celebrate it.
This is the first time Yarvin has made an argument on strategy that I disagreed with.
War is in many ways a battle of resource management. The resource of energy is a common focus of Yarvin's writings. There are other resources to consider in addition to energy. One such resource is territory. If Eastern Russia decided to break away from the rest of Russia right now, would it make Russia stronger or weaker in their war with Ukraine?
Territory comes with tangible resources which must be managed. High Elves have become very bad at resource management. In many Progressive territories aka Blue States or Blue Strongholds (cities), you'll find their poor resource management is becoming more and more transparent. An example: in the the 2010-2020 census, California experienced its first population decline in recorded history. Do you suppose Hobbit strength and influence on California increased or decreased over this decade? Obviously it decreased. And as it decreased, High Elves found themselves alone with each other, and their increasingly tenuous relationship with competence. And that third group (neglected by Yarvin), the humans who also want to be left alone but happen to enjoy art films and whatever, find themselves inexplicably attracted to Hobbit states. It's getting easier and easier to find kindred spirits in Florida these days. Who knew?
When people no longer desire to be ruled by your Regime, it has lost legitimacy. It is usually those individuals who enjoy the combination of gumption, competence, and means that are most likely to channel their great-great-grandfather's genes and head on a voyage to another state better suited for their talents and with significantly fewer hobos masturbating on park benches. And what effect does this have on the places they flee from? Oh yes, we have a name for that. It's called brain drain. It turns out there's about a half century of data on the effects of brain drain on the nations they flee from. It isn't good for their former homes. It is quite good for their new homes. When LeBron took his talents to South Beach, South Beach benefited. Ohio had to get its shit together in order to win him back.
Population is a type of territory. Fewer and fewer people are seeking to be ruled by Elves, and are begrudgingly warming to the Hobbits. Roe being overturned might impact that. However, it also might not. What's more important to that wine aunt who already managed to sober up long enough to realize she was tired of stepping on dirty needles and got out of dodge: abortion access for her barren womb, or the refreshing smell of not piss and conspicuous absence of hobos debasing themselves on benches?
Yarvin called Dobbs our Brexit. That's cool. It will indeed influence The Big Sort. That's also cool. Think back to the California census. We want that sort. We want the Blue states to get as Blue as possible. We want Heisenberg Progressivism, nothing beats the blue stuff. The fewer impurities it contains (Hobbits) and the more concentrated it is, the more its true nature is revealed. Turns out those Hobbits and Humans have been subsidizing the High Elves and their dumbass ideas for quite some time. They do this by virtue of being competent enough to keep the lights on while the San Francisco Regime interviewed and trained the new dirty needle collection brigade. It also turns out those Hobbits and Humans are getting tired of that, and mustering what little energy they have not to struggle, but to move.
True Believers will always tow the party line, and are wealthy enough to live comfortably among masturbating hobos and other forms of human degradation. An argument could be made that they actually kind of get off on it. Most people do not fall into this category. As the High Elf states experience population decline, and more and more LeBrons take their talents to South Beach, the High Elves will decrease in strength. The Berlin Wall was built to keep people in, not out. California does not have a Berlin Wall. Maybe it should. But it doesn't, so people are fleeing to Regimes they by definition find more favorable because they're seeking to be governed by them. Dobbs will accelerate this sort. It is by no means set in stone that Red places will get Redder as Blue places get Bluer. Maybe Blue places get Bluer and Red places get Purpler. But Conquest's 2nd Law appears to be in full force in the Red places, so maybe they're safe for now.
The Reversal of Roe will have some sort of response. It's a mistake to assume the nature or magnitude of that response just yet.
One last thing, though not related to anything prior: It's not always a mistake for an underdog to provoke an overdog. The American Civil Rights Movement is a good example of this. The underdogs provoked the overdogs, and then let the response speak for itself in shifting opinions enough to ultimately shift these categories altogether.
Hobbits and elves is a helpful metaphor. There’s another layer though. In Tolkien’s beautiful world, both races are noble and equipped with talents that enrich the overall life of the Kingdom. They are good. They struggle against evil. They engage in inherently worthy tasks throughout the day. Far from simply “grilling and raising kids” the hobbits are excellent craftsmen and farmers, gardeners and artisans. Who knows what the elves do but it’s powerful and beautiful and uplifting. And they look gorgeous doing it.
This fits only tortuously onto our red vs blue reality. Let’s be honest there is a culture-wasteland in both groups. Grilling is fine, but just not enough, and not worthy of a fully human life. Also, the effing elves are lousy degenerates ruining everything they touch. Middle earth is on a sorry state and perhaps the answer lies more in each group seeking some internal regeneration at a basic level so as to be worthy of the respect of the other.
The thing I've always been least comfortable with in your worldview is that the American essence of society isn't worth saving. The "hobbits," so to speak, aren't interested, and never will be, in being secretive or cagey with their political leanings, or ESPECIALLY their moral values, as is the case with abortion. You might convince other lapsed-liberal "dark elf" elites to be Machiavellian, and they might see babies' lives as an acceptable sacrifice in service of some greater political goal, but then what business do you "dark elves" even have ruling Christian, God-fearing Americans whose values are honesty, forthrightness, morality and decency?
You think Americans could actually have a shot at winning this great revolution you envision, if they would just learn how to be subjects. But for me, the thing worth saving about America is our distaste for being subjects.
The distinction drawn here between Elves and Hobbits is too self-aggrandizing. There is no reason for Tolkien's race of Men to LARP as either group, and there is no reason that from the so-called Hobbits a greatness cannot be cultivated/forged/developed.
It's also a strange analogy to me because a) Elves don't rule Hobbits, and would not be interested in such an arrangement and b) the whole story is arguably about the ennobling of the lowly Hobbits. Remind me who scours the Shire?
As Joseph de Maistre said, nothing great has great beginnings. Or, even dwarfs started small.
I would use "Nazgul" to describe the ruling class, not "elves." I think you need to be disabused of your feeling of sympathy towards (and belonging to) this blasphemous milieu. These people are stupid, lack any culture beyond post-modernist cliches, and function as fungi corroding the body politic upon which they economically thrive. Yes, yes, I too am rich and went to a great school, but I despise America's white liberals - the emasculated goblins and screeching harpies of our time.
The way you win a religious war is by smashing the enemy's idols, daring the enemy deity to do something about it, and coming out unscathed. The left understands this, it's why the alphabet freak show is so important to them. Curtis also understands it, he wrote a piece about it not too long ago in the context of the freak show.
So far, the right has suffered nothing at all for this. No cities burned, no terror campaign against churches, it doesn't even look like it'll have an impact in November. It's a pure victory for the right and Curtis is chaffed at seeing his "never fight back" advice belied.
Lollll, the subtext here is amazing. "You dummies went and did something so gauche it makes ME look unpopular at parties. ME. How am I supposed to convince my cool girlfriend* of anything when I've got YOU dummies to account for?"
I mean, in the words of another commenter, "yes, I too am rich and went to a great school", silicon valley mathematician, classical liberal arts training, happily married to a researcher with even better street cred, not religious, not Republican, not even against all the abortions, but I still see this as an absolute win. You created me, and a lot of people like me, and I'm sorry, but you do have to answer for us to your cool girlfriend. It's a bummer, I know.
Personally I see this as one of those political revolution vs social revolution things. It's totally reasonable to trade away a political revolution for a social revolutionary win. Otherwise, what's the point? Power accumulated forever and never spent, like so much useless hoard money. No, if something is someone's stated number one bullet point social revolutionary goal** for fifty years, believe it's in their rational interest to trade away everything else to get it done.
And it's not even necessarily a bad move for the political revolution. Let this convince a large number of people on both sides that democracy doesn't work. Let it hasten the end of America the Single Culture.
* https://twitter.com/lydialaurenson , honestly very cool.
** The goal is not (and never was) to ban abortions in Oakland. It's to regain the right to ban them where they're unpopular. It's anti-federal, it's a step towards city states, it's equivalent to https://graymirror.substack.com/p/the-parent-coup
Curtis I love you, but this essay is a steaming pile. In my nerd rage I'm going to toss you a 10 spot just to post this (I'm already up to date on all the premium content...).
Trashing Roe v Wade was an insane win for the good, the true, and the beautiful. A win not taken by replacing the entire system with a monarchy, but one taken by regular, straightforward politics. A win that, by your writing on the culture war, should have been impossible (and for what it's worth, I thought it was impossible too, until it happened). I've been waiting to hear how you update your thought or provide a counter narrative or _something_ --- but to downplay such a colossal win followed by rehashing the same old rhetoric? Weak.
First off, let's get this out of the way --- _our elites are not high elves_. They are degenerate, lack conviction, exonerate the lowest, and take pride in sin, ugliness, and relativism. Google drag queen story hour, and marinate on that hissing creature made up like satan if satan's beautician had downs syndrome --- that, my friend, is a dark elf. While it's true these dark elves occupy the honored position of the high elves, they only do so in clown world, in this inversion we are living. Don't be fooled, they are dark and getting darker.
Second off, there is no longer a hard class distinction between Hobbits and Elves. The majority of people reading this, I'd wager, enjoy art films _and_ grilling. Technology has levelled the playing field. Joe Rogan, literal real life hobbit, is destroying the gay bois at cnn and the supercilious fake sneerers at fox. The dark elves have taken over, and they are setting fire to their once great elf valley from within. The elves are learning the hard way that there is Truth in morality. They aren't the first to put themselves above Truth, and they'll fall just as hard as everyone else who as attempted it.
No really what is this metaphor --- our current oligarchy is not full of winners. More and more, strong leaders who care about strong leader things are specifically avoiding the bureaucracy, the political correctness, the mediocrity. And those that don't are filtered out of the system because they refuse to bend the knee to lies and degeneracy. You're telling me there is no one outside of this pack of raving clowns with the will to power? Biden is the high water mark of a human leader? I agree that many elites are being done wrong by the current system, and under better leadership they will be better people. But the best people are getting out of elfhood.
This is not a class battle, it is a theological battle. I've read Tolkien and the hobbits and elves are on on the same side: the side of good.
Third off, grow some cajones. I know you like to distance yourself from moral questions and have the autistic programmer takes, but some things you just can't fence sit on. "Among those who believe that an unborn baby is a human life, of course, the result of preventing an abortion is saving a life." Very diplomatic. Let the Californians set up their abortion theme parks. Let them sell little key chains with the aborted kid's leg hanging off it. Hell, the autistic silicon valley types can monetize baby parts the same way they monetized personal data. Nobody even knows about the value of their unborn child! We'll pay _you_ to abort it!
Let the horrendous evil of society's wanton murder of its most helpless be on full display, because through some spell it has been hidden from the eyes of good people. This will further divide the elves, right? Speaking of which, the repeal of Roe v Wade does just that --- it allows red states to go red, and blue states to go blue. People can sort themselves out. That's the whole point, isn't it, patchwork and all that?
Lastly, tangential, but a peeve of mine:
"Culture is still downstream from power"
If it's downstream of power how can it be leveraged to upset the existing power center? Culture/art is neither downstream, nor upstream of power/politics. They are always interacting with each other in a complex system that loops in on itself. I have no idea why this generalisation is so popular.
_To the extent that political power opts to exercise tyrannical control of culture_, it is upstream of _mainstream_ culture. But there will always be alternative cultures that exist independent of, or react against the mainstream propaganda. And as Curtis points out, these alternative cultures can end up upstream of future politics.
But more than that, power/politics is not everything. Art is deeper than the low resolution abstractions wielded by politics. Human connections are deeper. Politics are necessary and always present in human society, they are _not_ all encompassing. The latter is such misanthropic, myopic, and self evidently wrong take, yet I get it constantly from both the left and the right.
In short, step it up my man. If the "dark elves" can't take a stand on murdering unborn kids, then what good are they? Do we need to sway you with poetry on this one?
Before I saw light, I was sheltered
in she who gave me life
never would I know such certainty
as her warmth
when I open my eyes, it will be her
face that I would see first
had she not, compelled by some curse
changed,
and taken back that which she gave
Elves are completely incapable of viewing anything outside of a "what I want at this moment" lens. "I want to be able to screw without consequence, and killing babies is a price I'm willing to pay, so law is now whatever is required to make that a 'right'".
This would seem to indicate that there can be no contract at all with elves, because there is no meaning which will survive a change in their desires, and those change frequently. Today they want to change the sex of children, down to 2 and 3 year olds.
Before I thought that this was a feature of a state. Now you say it is a feature of elves, per se.
Elves? Elves??
Once upon a time there was a pseudonymous blogger who quite possibly changed the world (the jury of history is still out and will be deliberating for a while.) Then he got doxxed and, according to some opinions, has never been the same since.
Here is a quote from his earlier years: "...let’s pause for a minute, and admit that there is evil in the world. More specifically, there are evil people. And it is a glorious thing, and good for all and sundry, to wrap a rope around their necks and pull the chair away... the combination of world domination and *profound self-righteousness* is a bath of nutrients as nourishing as evil has ever found. And bacteria are not in short supply" (emphasis mine.)
Why do the all the "Dark Elves" telling me to wait just a little bit longer all seem somewhat Dwarvish? And why do so many of the High Elves seem to be Dwarves as well?
If the answer is "because a significant percentage of all elves are actually dwarves" than I question your whole method and frame of analysis.
"Of dwarves and orcs we shall not speak" Ok, fine. But both are immediate problems to my life and livelihood. The orcs are killing me and the dwarves are robbing me blind. The artistic pretensions of elves are ugly and revolting to me, but they aren't ruining my immediate material existence, and they have not penetrated my family's spiritual bubble. I'm not being misruled, I'm being robbed and beaten and shot at by the unruled. The dwarves and orcs are being misruled. Rule them. Leave ME the fuck alone!
You have this idea that life is just one big burning man for leftists, but that simple folk need to be ruled by their own parochial chiefdoms. It's the other way around. It's the bat-shit crazy lefties who need the monastic discipline and the order of their own church. The common folk can be left alone.
There are two problems the way I see it. One is that Curtis can't empathize with the 'hobbit' portion of his audience that well, though I do believe he tries. The other is that he stopped coming up with genuinely new ideas so now we're getting pieces like this ad infinitum, just with different metaphors. Combined this will result in people getting increasingly pissed off.
The solution to Elvish extremism is not to arm Elvish moderates with power. The solution, which Yarvin might be expected to know, is the return of the King.
Defeatist nonsense: The rural people control the food, the rural people control the highways, the rural people have the guns and the military training. The city people have art, paper money, and web applications.
The real problem with Dobbs is, I don't give two flying fucks if democrats kill their children, inside the womb or outside it: Dobbs is born out of a misguided "love for all humanity" which is the true enemy of the right. In fact, I would give them the power to kill their offspring until they become Republicans.
The fact that Republicans care about Democrat lives, and all the weakness that entails, is the real reason we will lose. We will lose until we view them with as much contempt as they view us. And let them die. Even celebrate it.
This is the first time Yarvin has made an argument on strategy that I disagreed with.
War is in many ways a battle of resource management. The resource of energy is a common focus of Yarvin's writings. There are other resources to consider in addition to energy. One such resource is territory. If Eastern Russia decided to break away from the rest of Russia right now, would it make Russia stronger or weaker in their war with Ukraine?
Territory comes with tangible resources which must be managed. High Elves have become very bad at resource management. In many Progressive territories aka Blue States or Blue Strongholds (cities), you'll find their poor resource management is becoming more and more transparent. An example: in the the 2010-2020 census, California experienced its first population decline in recorded history. Do you suppose Hobbit strength and influence on California increased or decreased over this decade? Obviously it decreased. And as it decreased, High Elves found themselves alone with each other, and their increasingly tenuous relationship with competence. And that third group (neglected by Yarvin), the humans who also want to be left alone but happen to enjoy art films and whatever, find themselves inexplicably attracted to Hobbit states. It's getting easier and easier to find kindred spirits in Florida these days. Who knew?
When people no longer desire to be ruled by your Regime, it has lost legitimacy. It is usually those individuals who enjoy the combination of gumption, competence, and means that are most likely to channel their great-great-grandfather's genes and head on a voyage to another state better suited for their talents and with significantly fewer hobos masturbating on park benches. And what effect does this have on the places they flee from? Oh yes, we have a name for that. It's called brain drain. It turns out there's about a half century of data on the effects of brain drain on the nations they flee from. It isn't good for their former homes. It is quite good for their new homes. When LeBron took his talents to South Beach, South Beach benefited. Ohio had to get its shit together in order to win him back.
Population is a type of territory. Fewer and fewer people are seeking to be ruled by Elves, and are begrudgingly warming to the Hobbits. Roe being overturned might impact that. However, it also might not. What's more important to that wine aunt who already managed to sober up long enough to realize she was tired of stepping on dirty needles and got out of dodge: abortion access for her barren womb, or the refreshing smell of not piss and conspicuous absence of hobos debasing themselves on benches?
Yarvin called Dobbs our Brexit. That's cool. It will indeed influence The Big Sort. That's also cool. Think back to the California census. We want that sort. We want the Blue states to get as Blue as possible. We want Heisenberg Progressivism, nothing beats the blue stuff. The fewer impurities it contains (Hobbits) and the more concentrated it is, the more its true nature is revealed. Turns out those Hobbits and Humans have been subsidizing the High Elves and their dumbass ideas for quite some time. They do this by virtue of being competent enough to keep the lights on while the San Francisco Regime interviewed and trained the new dirty needle collection brigade. It also turns out those Hobbits and Humans are getting tired of that, and mustering what little energy they have not to struggle, but to move.
True Believers will always tow the party line, and are wealthy enough to live comfortably among masturbating hobos and other forms of human degradation. An argument could be made that they actually kind of get off on it. Most people do not fall into this category. As the High Elf states experience population decline, and more and more LeBrons take their talents to South Beach, the High Elves will decrease in strength. The Berlin Wall was built to keep people in, not out. California does not have a Berlin Wall. Maybe it should. But it doesn't, so people are fleeing to Regimes they by definition find more favorable because they're seeking to be governed by them. Dobbs will accelerate this sort. It is by no means set in stone that Red places will get Redder as Blue places get Bluer. Maybe Blue places get Bluer and Red places get Purpler. But Conquest's 2nd Law appears to be in full force in the Red places, so maybe they're safe for now.
The Reversal of Roe will have some sort of response. It's a mistake to assume the nature or magnitude of that response just yet.
One last thing, though not related to anything prior: It's not always a mistake for an underdog to provoke an overdog. The American Civil Rights Movement is a good example of this. The underdogs provoked the overdogs, and then let the response speak for itself in shifting opinions enough to ultimately shift these categories altogether.
Norm Voice: See some people say the worst thing about Roe V Wade was the culture war - that was the worst part - I think maybe it was the baby killing
Hobbits and elves is a helpful metaphor. There’s another layer though. In Tolkien’s beautiful world, both races are noble and equipped with talents that enrich the overall life of the Kingdom. They are good. They struggle against evil. They engage in inherently worthy tasks throughout the day. Far from simply “grilling and raising kids” the hobbits are excellent craftsmen and farmers, gardeners and artisans. Who knows what the elves do but it’s powerful and beautiful and uplifting. And they look gorgeous doing it.
This fits only tortuously onto our red vs blue reality. Let’s be honest there is a culture-wasteland in both groups. Grilling is fine, but just not enough, and not worthy of a fully human life. Also, the effing elves are lousy degenerates ruining everything they touch. Middle earth is on a sorry state and perhaps the answer lies more in each group seeking some internal regeneration at a basic level so as to be worthy of the respect of the other.
The thing I've always been least comfortable with in your worldview is that the American essence of society isn't worth saving. The "hobbits," so to speak, aren't interested, and never will be, in being secretive or cagey with their political leanings, or ESPECIALLY their moral values, as is the case with abortion. You might convince other lapsed-liberal "dark elf" elites to be Machiavellian, and they might see babies' lives as an acceptable sacrifice in service of some greater political goal, but then what business do you "dark elves" even have ruling Christian, God-fearing Americans whose values are honesty, forthrightness, morality and decency?
You think Americans could actually have a shot at winning this great revolution you envision, if they would just learn how to be subjects. But for me, the thing worth saving about America is our distaste for being subjects.
The Reactionary Case for Chopping Babies Up into Tiny Pieces
The distinction drawn here between Elves and Hobbits is too self-aggrandizing. There is no reason for Tolkien's race of Men to LARP as either group, and there is no reason that from the so-called Hobbits a greatness cannot be cultivated/forged/developed.
It's also a strange analogy to me because a) Elves don't rule Hobbits, and would not be interested in such an arrangement and b) the whole story is arguably about the ennobling of the lowly Hobbits. Remind me who scours the Shire?
As Joseph de Maistre said, nothing great has great beginnings. Or, even dwarfs started small.